全面二孩政策与中国劳动力供给
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A Study on the Relations between the Universal Two-child Policy and China's Labor Supply
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    摘要:

    人口是构成劳动力的基础,生育政策调整下生育水平变动引发人口规模与结构变动,从而对劳 动力市场尤其是劳动力供给产生重要影响。本研究在对我国计划生育政策的调整和演变、劳动力供给的状况与 趋势进行分析的基础上,进一步从宏观视角探讨全面二孩政策与我国劳动力供给的关系。总体来看,全面二孩 政策对政策实施后前十五年女性劳动力的劳动参与率影响十分有限,而从长远来看,对我国未来的劳动力规模 有一定的补充。另外,产业结构升级和技术发展背景下我国未来劳动力需求主要是质量和结构而非规模。因此, 进一步减弱了生育政策调整对劳动力市场的影响后果。

    Abstract:

    Population is the foundation of labor force. The adjustment of the family planning policy in our country, which has triggered changes in the size and structure of the population, has significant impacts on the labor market, especially on the labor supply. This study, based on the analysis of the adjustment and evolution of China’s family planning policy, and the situation and trends of the labor supply, further explores, from the macro perspective, the relations of the universal two-child policy and our country’s labor supply. Overall, the universal two-child policy has little impact on the labor participation rate of the female labor force in the first fifteen years. However, it will enlarge the size of the labor force in the long run. Moreover, under the situation of the future industrial structure upgrading and technology development, the needs of our country's labor force will be mainly on its quality and structure, and the adjustment of the family planning policy, as a result, has weakened its impacts on the labor force market.

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童玉芬,宫倩楠.全面二孩政策与中国劳动力供给[J].中国劳动关系学院,2019,33(1):1-7.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-11
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