生育政策调整对我国劳动力供给规模的影响评估
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An Evaluation on the Impact of the Adjustment of Fertility Policy on the Scale of Labor Supply in China
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    摘要:

    全面二孩政策的实施,是中国生育政策的一次重大调整,研究该政策的实施对劳动力供给的影 响具有十分重要的意义。本研究利用2010年的人口普査数据,设置全面二孩政策实施后生育水平可能的变化方案, 并在此基础上对全面二孩政策的实施对我国未来劳动力供给规模的影响进行测算。研究结果表明,无论生育政 策是否调整,我国未来劳动力供给都将呈现出2030年前缓慢下降、2030年后快速下降的趋势。全面二孩政策的 实施在一定程度上增加了 2030年后劳动力的供给规模,对减缓劳动力快速下滑的势头起到了积极的作用,但总 趋势无法扭转。因此,未来生育政策的进一步调整应当更多地从人口结构、养老保障、育龄妇女的生育意愿等 其他社会经济因素方面加以考虑。

    Abstract:

    The implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy is a major adjustment of China's fertility policy, which is of great significance to study the impact of the implementation of this policy on labor supply. This study uses data of population census of 2010, and sets a plan for possible changes in the fertility level after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy across China. On this basis, the impact of the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy on China's future labor supply scale is measured. The results show that our country's future labor supply will show a trend of slow decline before 2030, whereas after which a trend of rapid decline regardless of whether the birth policy is adjusted. The implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, to a certain extent, has increased the scale of labor supply after 2030, and has played a positive role in slowing down the rapid decline in labor. However, the overall trend cannot be reversed. Therefore, further adjustments to future fertility policies should take into account of other socio-economic factors, e.g. population structure, old-age security, and women's willingness to bear children of childbearing age.

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童玉芬,周 文,陈乐鸣,宫倩楠.生育政策调整对我国劳动力供给规模的影响评估[J].中国劳动关系学院,2021,35(2):107-116.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-13
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