卢德主义辨析:技术进步、就业增长与政策反应
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Luddism Re-examined: Technological Progress, Employment Growth, and Policy Responses
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    摘要:

    卢德主义对技术进步与就业关系的认识存在局限性,忽视了技术进步对就业的长期、整体及动 态影响。现实数据表明,长期而言,技术进步促进了就业增长,但这需满足产业链上下游的有效协同、充分发 挥最终需求的关键作用、合宜的市场规制等条件。研究认为,尽管卢德主义者的认识存在局限,但是部分微观 个体的就业损失真实存在,必须重视微观层面劳动者的诉求,并采取有效的再分配政策,确保技术进步的红利 惠及所有劳动者。在人工智能时代,劳动节约型技术的基本属性未变,仍具有节约劳动特征,但分析不应仅停 留于表面的岗位替代效应,而应深入探讨其对工作任务与技能需求的结构性重塑。技术进步通过分解与重组工 作任务,改变工作任务边界与分配方式,引发技能需求的深刻变化,对此,需建立以任务与技能为导向的技能 培训体系。人工智能时代的就业前景取决于如何塑造技术发展方向、管理转型过程并公平分配技术红利,技术 进步本身并不决定社会经济结果,关键在于围绕技术发展所作出的制度选择和政策安排,应通过前瞻性的政策 设计,引导人工智能技术成为推动经济繁荣和增进社会福祉的动力,而非就业的威胁。

    Abstract:

    Luddism 's understanding of the relationship between technological progress and employment has its limitations as it overlooks the long-term, aggregate, and dynamic impacts of technological progress on employment. Empirical data show that, in the long run, technological progress promotes employment growth. However, this requires conditions such as effective coordination across industry chains, fully leveraging the crucial role of fi nal demand, and appropriate market regulations. The study argues that although the Luddite perspective is limited, the employment losses experienced by some micro-level individuals are real. Thus, it is essential to pay attention to the demands of workers at the micro level and implement effective redistribution policies to ensure that the benefi ts of technological progress are shared by all workers. In the era of artifi cial intelligence (AI), the fundamental nature of labor-saving technology remains unchanged, still characterized by its labor-saving features. However, analysis should not merely focus on the superfi cial job displacement effect; instead, it should delve into the structural reshaping of work tasks and skill demands. It is evident that technological progress decomposes and recomposes work tasks, alters the boundaries and allocation of tasks, and triggers profound changes in skill requirements. Consequently, it requires establishing a task- and skill-oriented vocational training system. The employment prospects in the AI era depend on how we shape the direction of technological development, manage the transition process, and distribute the technological dividends fairly. However, technological progress itself does not determine socio-economic outcomes, so the key lies in the institutional choices and policy arrangements surrounding technological development. Therefore, proactive policy design should guide AI technology to become a driving force for economic prosperity and social well-being.

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都 阳,崔慧敏.卢德主义辨析:技术进步、就业增长与政策反应[J].中国劳动关系学院,2025,(4):1-11.

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